John Overstreet

John Overstreet

is creating a revolution in intermarket analysis

0

patrons

$0

per month
I believe:
  • that the Kondratieff Supercycle is real but misunderstood
  • that Gibson's Paradox still exists, but has been misidentified
  • that the earnings yield and earnings cycles are the axes around which all other market phenomena revolve
  • that we are on the verge of a Great Depression that could last until 2030
  • that Baumol's cost disease explains how the Fed 'stabilized prices'
  • that innovation, productivity, and demand are collapsing because of the existence, not the policies, of the Fed
  • that industrial metal prices are the most important commodity prices to monitor
  • that globalization and automation under Pax Americana are products of the cost disease
  • that the Fed created our consumer culture
  • that markets are mysterious, not irrational
  • that since the establishment of the Fed, inflation peaks every thirty years
  • that since the establishment of the Fed, earnings boom twice every thirty years
  • that since the establishment of the Fed, stocks experience a boom once every thirty years
  • that commodity prices follow the earnings yield and earnings growth
  • that when commodity prices do not follow earnings growth, a crash follows
  • that stock market crashes predict commodity booms
  • that commodity supercycles usually coincide with bearish stocks
  • that profit margins are unsustainable
  • that gently falling profits coincide with benign bull markets
  • that stocks behave as if the ratio of earnings to commodity prices matter more than earnings alone
  • that absolutely nobody knows what is going on
  • that history is an imperfect but reliable guide to the future
I know:
  • that Shiller's P/E10 = (E/E10) / (E/P)
  • that revenue less costs equals profits
I don't know:
  • anything other than accounting identities

I have been writing at Seeking Alpha, and other sites like Investing.com, since 2012, but because of a change of policies at Seeking Alpha, I have decided it would be better to strike out on my own. I used to write for free, but in order to justify spending more time, energy, and resources on this endeavor, I need to generate a bit of revenue, and I would like to retain control over my work.

Since Seeking Alpha has started putting some of my articles behind a paywall, I have decided to republish all of my past articles from that site here, as well as articles that are not exclusive to Seeking Alpha. In addition, I will be posting chapters from a manuscript from an unfinished book tentatively entitled Intermarket Dynamics for the 21st Century, as well as writing new articles and observations.

In the future, I hope to not only develop and propagate my economic and market ideas more fully, but connect them with geopolitical and ideological changes and, by applying those ideas, reorient the focus of serious news collection and analysis.

The way I have organized the page is as follows:
  • The $10 level is reserved for those who would like a) a more streamlined version of the intermarket principles I have tried to develop, b) to gain access to new research, and c) contribute to future research and development
  • The $5 level is reserved for those who would like to a) gain access to up-to-date applications of the intermarket principles I have developed and b) contribute to further research and development
  • For those who do not wish to contribute, almost all of the ideas that can be found within the $5 and $10 levels can also be found in the old articles in some form or another. But you can contribute in other ways: participating in discussions and spreading the word!
John Overstreet
Tiers
Market Musings
$5 or more per month
For $5 per month, in addition to free material, you will get access to fairly frequent short-form observations on markets--including stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies--that utilize the techniques that I am developing.
Research & Development
$10 or more per month
For $10 per month, in addition to the free material and Market Musings, you will get access to my new research, as well as to rough drafts of chapters to a manuscript on intermarket analysis that I am working on. If your comments are sufficiently awesome and/or insightful, I will gratefully include your name in the acknowledgements.
Goals
$0 of $1,000 per month
With $1000 a month, I would be able to devote considerably more time and energy to research and writing and gain access to more data.
1 of 1
I believe:
  • that the Kondratieff Supercycle is real but misunderstood
  • that Gibson's Paradox still exists, but has been misidentified
  • that the earnings yield and earnings cycles are the axes around which all other market phenomena revolve
  • that we are on the verge of a Great Depression that could last until 2030
  • that Baumol's cost disease explains how the Fed 'stabilized prices'
  • that innovation, productivity, and demand are collapsing because of the existence, not the policies, of the Fed
  • that industrial metal prices are the most important commodity prices to monitor
  • that globalization and automation under Pax Americana are products of the cost disease
  • that the Fed created our consumer culture
  • that markets are mysterious, not irrational
  • that since the establishment of the Fed, inflation peaks every thirty years
  • that since the establishment of the Fed, earnings boom twice every thirty years
  • that since the establishment of the Fed, stocks experience a boom once every thirty years
  • that commodity prices follow the earnings yield and earnings growth
  • that when commodity prices do not follow earnings growth, a crash follows
  • that stock market crashes predict commodity booms
  • that commodity supercycles usually coincide with bearish stocks
  • that profit margins are unsustainable
  • that gently falling profits coincide with benign bull markets
  • that stocks behave as if the ratio of earnings to commodity prices matter more than earnings alone
  • that absolutely nobody knows what is going on
  • that history is an imperfect but reliable guide to the future
I know:
  • that Shiller's P/E10 = (E/E10) / (E/P)
  • that revenue less costs equals profits
I don't know:
  • anything other than accounting identities

I have been writing at Seeking Alpha, and other sites like Investing.com, since 2012, but because of a change of policies at Seeking Alpha, I have decided it would be better to strike out on my own. I used to write for free, but in order to justify spending more time, energy, and resources on this endeavor, I need to generate a bit of revenue, and I would like to retain control over my work.

Since Seeking Alpha has started putting some of my articles behind a paywall, I have decided to republish all of my past articles from that site here, as well as articles that are not exclusive to Seeking Alpha. In addition, I will be posting chapters from a manuscript from an unfinished book tentatively entitled Intermarket Dynamics for the 21st Century, as well as writing new articles and observations.

In the future, I hope to not only develop and propagate my economic and market ideas more fully, but connect them with geopolitical and ideological changes and, by applying those ideas, reorient the focus of serious news collection and analysis.

The way I have organized the page is as follows:
  • The $10 level is reserved for those who would like a) a more streamlined version of the intermarket principles I have tried to develop, b) to gain access to new research, and c) contribute to future research and development
  • The $5 level is reserved for those who would like to a) gain access to up-to-date applications of the intermarket principles I have developed and b) contribute to further research and development
  • For those who do not wish to contribute, almost all of the ideas that can be found within the $5 and $10 levels can also be found in the old articles in some form or another. But you can contribute in other ways: participating in discussions and spreading the word!
John Overstreet

Recent posts by John Overstreet

Tiers
Market Musings
$5 or more per month
For $5 per month, in addition to free material, you will get access to fairly frequent short-form observations on markets--including stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies--that utilize the techniques that I am developing.
Research & Development
$10 or more per month
For $10 per month, in addition to the free material and Market Musings, you will get access to my new research, as well as to rough drafts of chapters to a manuscript on intermarket analysis that I am working on. If your comments are sufficiently awesome and/or insightful, I will gratefully include your name in the acknowledgements.