Variance Hammer

is creating a Blog About Miniature Wargames, Statistics and Narrative

Select a membership level

Patrol
$1
per creation

The bare-bones you need to field and army, and the base support for Variance Hammer. Thank you for your support.

Battalion
$1.50
per creation

Just a little bit more for those sweet, sweet command points. Showing a little more support for the blog and associated efforts.

Brigade
$5
per creation

The detachment that broke the game! A serious commitment to Variance Hammer that comes with my thanks. After a year of support at this level, I'll send you a set of Variance Hammer dice as a thanks for your support.

10

patrons

$37

per creation

About

I have been writing and maintaining Variance Hammer, a blog about miniatures wargaming, specifically about Warhammer 40,000. Where did the name, and the idea, come from?

If you've ever read a website talking about miniature wargaming on the internet, you've probably encountered a phrase like the following: "Well, on average, the Plasma Megablaster should kill 12.667 Space Marines per shot..."

The problem is, that statement doesn't actually contain all that much information. First of all, you cannot kill 2/3rds of a Space Marine - he's either dead or he isn't. Second, what's the variability associated with that? Is it possible that the Plasma Megablaster will kill zero Space Marines? 100 Space Marines? All of these statements are built on what's known as the Law of Large Numbers, which assumes essentially an infinite number of die rolls. And that's the core of the problem: games of Warhammer involve very few dice rolls. Essentially, there are no "average" games.

I've been trying to address that, by looking at simulation-based analysis (what I also do for a living as a computational scientist) and statistics to actually look at the variability inherent in the game, and question some of our closely held assumptions about it. So far, this has included everything from product reviews to a statistical analysis of the Las Vegas Open, with more to come. I've also tried infusing this with a fairly positive attitude about the game as a whole - inspired by the good folks at The Independent Characters I think the best discussions of the game should make people more excited to play, not less.
Goals
$37 of $45 per creation
This funding level will help cover both the game and code development of a stochastic (random) campaign generator, that would allow you to generate a linked 3-5 game narrative campaign's worth of scenarios, with some branching outcomes and the like. The code for said generator will be available on Github, so it will act as something of a living campaign repository as people add new missions, etc.
3 of 3
By becoming a patron, you'll instantly unlock access to 18 exclusive posts
1
Image
1
Poll
16
Writings
By becoming a patron, you'll instantly unlock access to 18 exclusive posts
1
Image
1
Poll
16
Writings

Recent posts by Variance Hammer

How it works

Get started in 2 minutes

Choose a membership
Sign up
Add a payment method
Get benefits